Crypto Market Update Monday November 2, 2026: Bitcoin at $77,956 (-0.51%)
Monday’s crypto market update starts with a stress test that Bitcoin has passed so far. Bitcoin trades at $77,956, down 0.51% since the 00:00 UTC daily open. Binance reopened withdrawals on Sunday, and billions left the exchange. The price barely moved.
Sentiment has improved slightly but remains cautious. Alternative.me’s Fear & Greed Index reads 37 (Fear), up from 34 yesterday and 30 on Friday. CoinMarketCap’s gauge reads 36.
Snapshot collected at 14:19 UTC on Monday 2 November. Crypto prices use Binance USDT pairs, shown in dollar terms. All daily crypto changes measure from midnight UTC. Macro changes compare with the previous close. US cash indices show Friday’s completed session.
Crypto Market Update: Key Movers Today
Ethereum trades at $2,292, up 0.72% today. Its session range is $2,268–$2,318. It is the strongest of the large caps, though it remains 1.4% lower over seven days.
The altcoins are mostly softer:
- XRP: $1.254, up 0.23% today.
- Solana: $94.14, down 0.42% today. The session range is $93.69–$95.95.
- BNB: $704.42, down 1.16% today and 1.61% over 24 hours.
- Cardano: $0.1906, down 1.29% today.
BNB’s weakness is worth noting on a day when its exchange is the main story. It still trades above Friday’s level of about $700.
Binance Reopens Withdrawals: How Much Left?
Withdrawals resumed at 06:00 UTC on Sunday after a 45-hour freeze. The first phase covered 15 networks and assets, including BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP and major stablecoins.
Two different outflow figures are circulating, and they measure different things:
- Net flow: Binance reported $4.65 billion withdrawn and $1.01 billion deposited. That is a net $3.64 billion.
- On-chain outflow: CoinDesk cites DefiLlama data showing about $6.1 billion leaving Binance-linked wallets in 24 hours. That is roughly 3.6% of $171 billion in pre-attack assets.
Neither figure looks like a run on the exchange so far. Binance also says it has replenished about 95% of the affected assets. It described the rest as mostly less liquid tokens.
Binance had also promised an updated Proof of Reserves report by today. We had not seen confirmation of it at the time of this snapshot.
ETF Flows: The First Reading After the Hack
Friday’s ETF number was the one to wait for, and it was poor. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.3 million on Friday, according to SoSoValue. That is the largest daily outflow since June 25.
BlackRock’s IBIT lost $233.7 million, and Fidelity’s FBTC lost $201.4 million. The outflow ended a four-day run of inflows. It also erased about 64% of the year’s net inflow, which had stood at just over $1 billion.
Today’s flow matters more than usual. A second heavy day would suggest fund investors are still leaving. A small number would make Friday look like a one-off reaction.
Macro Context: Oil Drops on Iran Talk Hopes After a Tech Rout
Oil is the weekend’s largest macro move. Brent fell 6.1% to about $106.50, and WTI fell more than 6%. Traders are responding to renewed US-Iran diplomacy, with a draft proposal circulating after talks in Doha.
Brent is still above $100, so the risk premium has not gone. Traders also worry the conflict could escalate again after Tuesday’s midterm elections.
US equities carry a heavy Friday into this week. The S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7,580, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.9%. Doubts about AI spending drove the sale. Futures point to a partial rebound today, with S&P 500 futures up 0.5% and Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.8%.
| Market | Latest level | Change versus previous close |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500, Friday close | 7,580 | -1.82% |
| Russell 2000, Friday close | 2,812 | -1.66% |
| Nikkei 225, Monday close | 63,082 | -0.33% |
| FTSE 100, Monday snapshot | 10,726 | -0.03% |
| Brent crude futures | $106.47 | about -6.1%* |
| WTI crude futures | $97.44 | -6.42% |
| Gold futures | $3,959 | +1.54% |
| Silver futures | $50.95 | +3.78% |
Source: Yahoo Finance via the daily market snapshot. Futures quotes represent contracts, rather than spot commodity prices. *Our feed shows Brent at -9.50% against Friday’s $117.64. That close appears to reflect the expiring front-month contract, so we quote CNBC’s figure.
Bond Yields Ease, Metals Rebound
Treasury yields slipped again. The 10-year yield is at 4.91%, down from 5.05% on Wednesday. The 30-year yield is at 5.27%. Cheaper oil helps by easing the inflation worry behind those yields.
The Fed question has not gone away. The central bank held rates at 3.75–4.00% last week, with two votes for a rise. Polymarket traders give about a 70% chance of a December hike.
Gold and silver both recovered after Friday’s fall. In currencies, dollar-yen stands at 157.78. Sterling buys $1.341 and €1.196.
The Week Ahead
Three events stand out:
- Apple earnings: after the US close today.
- US midterm elections: Tuesday. Some oil traders fear the Iran conflict could escalate afterwards.
- US jobs report: Friday. A strong number would strengthen the case for a December hike.
What Does the Technical Picture Show?
The weekend was calm. Bitcoin’s range since Friday’s close ran from $77,114 to $78,422. Sunday’s candle closed at $78,354, near its high.
Today’s session then tested the reclaim level we flagged on Friday. Price reached $78,878, just above Friday’s $78,804 high. It could not stay there and now sits back below.
Three reference areas matter this week:
- $76,326: Friday’s low and the bottom of the seven-day range. It held through the weekend and the withdrawal reopening.
- $78,804–$78,878: the area that rejected price today. A completed candle above it would be the first sign of follow-through.
- $80,000: the former floor, now resistance until proven otherwise.
Ethereum’s equivalent levels are $2,174 below and $2,318 above. It has set higher daily lows since Friday, a small sign of relative strength. These are observed references, not guaranteed support or resistance.
What Algorithmic Traders Are Watching
- Exchange balances, not just price. Withdrawals have reopened in phases. Our exchange outages and API risk guide covers how to plan for a venue under stress.
- Net versus gross flow. The same event produced figures of $3.64 billion and $6.1 billion. If a rule reads flow data, know which measure it uses.
- Monday’s ETF print. Friday’s outflow was a reaction to the hack. Whether it repeats is a separate question.
Event Risk and Cost Assumptions
- Oil-driven macro risk. A 6% daily move in crude can shift rate expectations quickly. A strategy with a macro filter should say which data point it uses and when.
- Scheduled event windows. The election and jobs report can both widen spreads. Backtests assuming normal fees and slippage may flatter trades around these dates.
Arrow Algo’s visual builder lets users express conditions like these with no-code visual blocks. If users choose deployment, their rules send signals to their own exchange accounts. The exchange decides whether to accept and execute each order.
Crypto Market Update: What Is the Market Outlook?
The constructive scenario needs a completed candle above $78,878, followed by a test of $80,000 from below. A smaller ETF number and an orderly next phase of withdrawals would support it.
The weaker scenario is a break of $76,326. That would open levels not seen since mid-September. A second heavy ETF outflow, a Proof of Reserves problem or a strong jobs report could each provide the trigger.
For this week, the question is whether Bitcoin’s calm reflects real demand or just quiet weekend trading. The ETF data and the US sessions will test it. Systematic traders can prepare for both outcomes without predicting either.
Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves significant risk and you should only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
Ready to build your own automated trading strategies without writing a single line of code? Start for free at Arrow Algo and join thousands of traders who've made the switch to systematic trading.